Investments in optical communication technologies peaked in 1999-2000 and declined sharply in 2001-2003 as the internet and telecom markets crashed. This downturn was devastating for majority of the optical communications vendors, with just a few players emerging from the rubble. 10 years later this industry is tested once again, this time by the global recession. The industry is well prepared to navigate through this downturn, but it will certainly impact technology and business trends.
The current recession, started by financial and housing crisis in the U.S., also indicates that the U.S. dominance of the global economy is withering and the world is transforming into a multipolar system.The new economic structure will be characterized by a more balanced power of leading economies, including Europe, Japan and China, as well as India, Brazil, Russia and the Middle East. Connectivity in such a multipolar system will become even more essential than it is now, clearly benefiting the networking industry, including the optical transceiver market.
LightCounting forecasts that worldwide sales of optical transceivers will experience low single digit decline in 2009 with a meager recovery in 2010. Accelerated market growth during 2011-2012 will be primarily driven by deployment of high-data-rate transceivers (10, 40 and 100-Gbps) in telecom, enterprise, and storage networks. Focus on active optical cables and other power efficient optical interfaces are likely to dominate the technology development.
Dr. Vladimir Kozlov is the founder and CEO of LightCounting – optical transceiver market research company. Dr. Kozlov is also a co-founder of Fianium Inc. and Microtech Instruments Inc. that are focused on growing segments of the optoelectronics industry. Dr. Kozlov has more than 25 years of experience in optoelectronics and optical communications. He held a senior analyst position at RHK, Inc., where he conducted research on technology trends and market forecast for optical components, including lasers, detectors and transceivers. Dr. Kozlov also held product development and research staff positions at Lucent Technologies and Princeton University, working on innovative semiconductor laser devices and materials. Dr. Kozlov holds 3 US patents and has more than 50 publications in the area of optoelectronics, including more than 25 publications in referred scientific journals. He received M. Sc (with honors) at Moscow State University in Russia and Ph. D in Physics at Brown University in the United States.